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Professor David Demko, PhD AgeVenture News Service 
As we approach the 21st century, you just might catch yourself saying "it's a whole new world". But you'd be wrong. Technically, it's a whole "old" world. In fact, the only commodity that is growing like there's no end in site is the global older population.
There are currently 580 million older people in the world, according to the World Health Organization. Yes, Virginia, there really is an organization that counts older people. Not bad work, if you can get it. But it's a good thing that someone is counting because the world as we know it will never be quite the same. The new "old" world offers a diverse case scenario. Diverse in that new and different perceptions about aging will emerge and foster new and different roles for the elders of the future. And if you're reading this article, one of those future elders will be you. Interested? Let's take a look. Where are these older people, globally-speaking that is? Well, contrary to popular opinion, they're not all clipping coupons in Miami Beach. Most older people, over 60% of them, are clipping coupons in developing countries. 355 million of the world's 580 million elders live in developing countries. Wow, you say. If you're impressed by those numbers, then wait until you hear what's about to happen next. By 2020, there will be 1,000 million elders, with over 700 million in the developing world. What are we going to do with all those older people? The answer is simple. Use 'em. Use the elders to create a better world. You see, the news is not all bad. In fact, the future of our rapidly aging world is best presented as a good news, bad news, diverse case scenario. THE GOOD NEWS Life expectancy has risen and is expected to go on rising in almost every part of the world. The reason for this is the sharp decline in premature mortality from many infectious and chronic diseases during this century. Improvements in sanitation, housing, nutrition and medical innovations, including vaccinations and the discovery of antibiotics have all contributed to the steep increase in the number of people reaching older age. Sharp increases in life expectancy have been accompanied by substantial falls in fertility all over the world, mainly due to modern contraceptive methods. In India, for example, total fertility rates (that is, the total number of children a woman is expected to have) have decreased from nearly 6 in 1970 to about 3 in 1998. In Brazil, fertility rates dropped from 5 in 1970 to about 2 in 1998. THE BAD NEWS (sort of) As more people reach a 'ripe old age' (can anyone tell me why we still refer to older people as "ripe" people), they also enter a period in their lives when they are at higher risk of developing chronic diseases, which in turn may result in disability. In fact, chronic diseases including cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and cancer are predicted to be the main contributors to the burden of disease in developing countries by 2020. Infectious diseases – although declining – will continue to add to the burden of disease in those regions. It is projected that in many countries with fertility rates below replacement level, the proportion of older people is expected to exceed the proportion of the very young (aged up to 19 years) by 2050. However, there is mounting evidence from developed countries that people are maintaining better health in later life than ever before. It is estimated that in 1996, there were 1.4 million fewer disabled older persons in the USA, than would have been expected if the health status of older people had not improved since the early 1980s. SPOTLIGHT ON CHINA In China, where the 'one-child-per-family' policy was officially introduced in 1979, the total fertility rates fell from 5.5 in 1970 to the current 1.8, which is below the 2.1 replacement level. This trend by which more people live to reach older age while fewer children are born is referred to as "popluation ageing". While it has taken France 115 years for the proportion of older people to double from 7 to 14%, it will take China only 27 years to achieve the same increase, between 2000 and 2027. FUTURE SCENARIO Not everyone looks at aging and older people in the same way. In fact, social perceptions of the value and benefits of old age vary in different cultures. That's a nice way of saying that other non-western cultures don't always take such a dim, negative view of aging and older people. For example, in many African and Asian countries, words which describe older people characterize elders as 'someone with knowledge'. It is important to recognize that aging is not an affliction but a great opportunity to make use of resources acquired over the life course. The World Health Organization believes that older people can be a tremendous asset to families and communities. Good idea. Sounds like what we need is a new image of aging that more accurately reflects the true diversity of aging, elder potential, and late-life roles. See related articles in the AgeVenture archives. Eldercare Trend Grey, Global and Growing ODS Goes Grey and Global with Active Aging Global Impotence Pegged at 47 Million Read More Lifestyle Features |